Showing posts with label 18.6 Year Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 18.6 Year Cycle. Show all posts

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Sunspots, Lunar Cycles and Weather Cycles | Louis M. Thompson

The occurrence of an 18- to 20-year cycle in weather in the U.S. Midwest is no longer controversial. The controversial issue is the cause. This article will present both sides of the issue, and will indicate why we will know more about the cause after the 1990s.


[...] The sunspot cycle has been associated with the “20-year drought cycle” in the western U.S. since about 1909, when A.E. Douglass started publishing his tree-ring studies. This scientist became so well known that he was able to establish the Laboratory for Tree Ring Research in Tuscon, Arizona, in 1938. 
 

[...] The sunspot cycle has averaged about 11 years since 1800. As the sun rotates on its axis, it makes a complete turn in about 27 days. Large and persistent spots appear to move from left to right for about two weeks, disappear, and return after about two weeks. The leading edges of spots or clusters of spots have a negative charge in one 11-year cycle and a positive charge in the next cycle. Hence, the term “double sunspot cycle.”


The conventional wisdom is that the drought cycle of about 20 years occurs near the end of the negative cycle and at the time of low solar activity. The drought periods of the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 1970s occurred at the end of the negative cycle. The drought periods did not consistently follow that pattern from 1800 to 1900, although the severe droughts of the 1820s and 1840s occurred at the end of the negative cycle.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - Sunspots and Lunar Cycles: Their Possible Relation to Weather Cycles.
In: Cycles, September/October 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
William Stanley Jevons (1875) - Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat.

The 18.6 Year Cycle in the General Economy | Louis M. Thompson

I believe there are weather cycles that trigger events in our economy, and I believe there is one weather cycle that is related to the 18.6 year lunar cycle. For that reason, I have prepared a lunar declination chart patterned after Fig. 1 and shown as Fig. 3. If a relationship between the lunar cycle and the weather cycle can be explained, we will gain a real milestone in explaining the business cycle.
 
 
 

[...] We have a 9.3-year cycle in production, which gives rise to a 9.3-year cycle in grain prices. Highest yields have occurred at the time of minimum declination and the four following years. Lowest prices have occurred because of a build-up of supplies, and the low prices have occurred about every 9.3 years and every 18.6 years. Fig. 3 describes the cycle in agriculture better than it does the general economy. Yet, as we look back to the nineteenth century, there were depressions at the time of maximum declination (285°) in every 18.6-year cycle. In this century, our lowest agricultural prices occurred in 1913, 1932, 1950, 1969, and 1987, or every 18.6 years. lt appears that a weather cycle of 18.6 years drives a production cycle of the same length, which drives a price cycle of the same length.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - The 18.6-Year Cycle in the General Economy.
In: Cycles, May/June 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
In: Cycles: The Science of Prediction.

Friday, March 15, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ March - April 2024

 
» I’m not trying to predict the future; I am trying to accurately and quickly depict the present. 
I’m not trying to predict what people will do, but rather identify what they are doing right now. «  
Chris Camillo, 2023
 

Monday, January 8, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ January 2024

 
 
» The lunar node, quite abstractly speaking, is the point of intersection of the solar and the lunar orbits. There are, therefore, two nodes in opposite positions in the heavens: an ascending node or lunar north node, and a descending node - the lunar south node. The solar and the lunar orbits are not, in effect, in the same but in different planes, enclosing a certain angle. Thus there arise the two opposite points of intersection. The peculiarity of these two points of intersection is that they do not stand still but slowly move. The plane of the lunar path rotates in relation to the plane of the solar path; so the two nodes move a round. They move around the Zodiac in a contrary direction to the rotation of the planets, i.e., from Aries backward through Pisces, Aquarius, etc. A complete revolution of a lunar node takes place in 18 years and 7 months; after this time, therefore, the node — the ascending node, for example — is once again in the same position in the Zodiac as it was before. The ascending node is, thereby, the mathematical point that (at any given time and again after 18 years and 7 months [= 6,798.383 CD] the lunar orbit rises above the solar orbit, while at the opposite point the descending node sinks below it. «

Willi O. Sucher, 1937.
 

Thursday, December 21, 2023

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ Projection into April 2024

 
Dec 21, 2023 (Thu) = May 10, 2005 (Tue)
 
 
 In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. 

Jan 3 (Wed) 22:30 = 270°
= Last Quarter    
Jan 11 (Thu) 06:57 = 0° = New Moon    
Jan 17 (Wed) 22:52 = 90° = First Quarter    
Jan 25 (Thu) 12:53 = 180° = Full Moon    

Thursday, November 17, 2022

S&P 500 Performance by Weekday

Bespoke (Mar 28, 2022) - On a trailing 12-month basis, the S&P 500 has performed poorly on Mondays and Tuesdays before gaining steam from Wednesday through Friday. This diverges from the patterns seen over the last thirty years, in which Thursday and Friday struggled relative to the performance over the first three trading days of the week. This year, oil has averaged gains on every day of the week, but the strongest performance has occurred early in the week, which is interesting as Monday and Tuesday have tended to be the worst days of the week for oil over the last 30 years. Bonds have performed poorly in the beginning of the week over the last twelve months but have partially recovered in the last two trading days. Over the long run, the safe asset has traded narrowly with only Wednesdays averaging a loss. Tuesdays and Thursdays have been strong days for the US Dollar over the last twelve months, but these days tend to result in flat to negative performance when looked at over the last 30 years.
 

Below we summarize the cumulative performance by weekday for the S&P 500 over the last 30 years. As you can see, Tuesday has been the best performing day by far, booking performance gains of 160.5%. Wednesday has posted a cumulative gain of 83.6%, which lands the day in second place. Friday and Thursday have been the weakest days, booking a cumulative gain of just 27.4% and 28.2%, respectively. Monday lands in the middle, recording a cumulative gain of 41.3%. As outlined above, the recent shift in weekday performance deviates from the norms of the last 30 years as investors have come out of the weekend with fears but concluded the week with optimism.
 
 
 
Quoted from:
 

Friday, October 21, 2022

Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2022 | 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle

UBS (Oct 11, 2022) - Nominal house price growth in the cities analyzed accelerated to 10% from mid-2021 to mid-2022, representing the highest increase since 2007. Four US cities — Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston — are among the top five with the fastest-growing prices.
 

Imbalances
are sky-high in both analyzed Canadian cities, with Toronto topping the index. Valuations in Frankfurt, Zurich, Munich, and Amsterdam also show elevated risks in Europe. In contrast, there is no bubble risk in the US cities. Since last year, mortgage rates have almost doubled on average across the cities analyzed. Alongside increased prices, this makes city housing much less affordable. A skilled service sector worker can afford roughly one-third less housing space than before the pandemic. 
 
 
In almost all cities, households have been leveraging up. Outstanding mortgages recorded the strongest increase since 2008. Debt-to-GDP is on the rise as well, reflecting the cheap financing conditions and weak economic growth since the pandemic. People have returned to the cities. Strong household formation and unaffordable owner-occupied housing drove demand for rental units. As a result, rents grew by 7% on average last year, making up all rental losses accumulated during the first year of pandemic. Higher interest rates, inflation, turmoil in the financial markets, and deteriorating economic conditions are putting the housing boom under pressure. In a majority of cities with high valuations, price corrections have either already begun, or are expected to start in the coming quarters [...] 

Edward R. Dewey & Edwin F. Dakin, 1947:
"No matter what index be used, this 18-year cycle rhythm seems one of the clearest,
most regular patterns revealed in our economic life.
"
 
In 1947 Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin showed that 18.6 year real estate cycles have repeated over centuries: in times of inflation or deflation, whether interest rates are high or low, with or without trade barriers, with government subsidies, and with high, low or no taxes. Fred Harrison demonstrated considerable economic predictive power relating to this 18.6 year cycle pattern: 14 years up, interrupted by a mid-cycle dip, followed by 4 years down. In over two centuries, this cycle has only ever been disrupted by two world wars. The cycle has never been shorter than 17 years, or longer than 21.

Dewey and Dakin wrote: "The building cycle is so long that few people experience two complete cycles in their business life. Education, to be effective, must therefore be “book knowledge” rather than experience […] For many individuals, an unfavorable first experience means a lifetime tragedy […] The welfare of an individual is often determined by the time in which he was born. If he is old enough to start business at the low of a business cycle, which is accompanied by […] rising prices, his chances for success are very good. Conversely, if he is born at such a date that he starts in business at the peak of a building cycle, which is accompanied by falling commodity prices, his chances of success are small. Much of the success or failure of an individual is due to forces over which he has no control; but if he understands these forces, he may protect himself from the worst results of unfavorable combinations and profit personally from favorable combinations."
 
All cycles have the same characteristics, but different influences, and government intervention in markets cannot create or suppress the real estate cycles. Credit, created by banks, through fractional reserve banking, fuels the cycle. Each recession brings new rules and regulations to the banking industry, designed to stop problems and prevent abuses; each upturn brings new ways to profit by exploiting loopholes in those rules and regulations. 
 
Residential real estate is first to recover from a downturn. The mid-cycle slowdown is confusing: The 18-year cycle is so long that few people remember the last one, and when market expansion quickly resumes, people think everything is fine. But the coming downturn will always be much worse than a mid-cycle slowdown. In the final years of a cycle, authorities congratulate themselves on how well they are managing things. If banks know the government will bail them out, why be prudent in lending. Seeing huge returns of others, the masses rush into real estate investing, believing it never goes down until fear overtakes greed. Land values peak about 12-24 months before a recession. 
 
A peak in the building cycle usually follows peak in land values, but precedes the recession. Announcement of the next ‘world’s tallest building’ may well be the most reliable indicator of an approaching peak. Copper prices spike into the last years of each real estate cycle. In the US all recessions since 1960 have been preceded by an inverted yield curve. The turning point in a cycle is often the collapse, or near collapse, of a major bank; some event will arise to cause doubt, but you’ll hear assurances that everything is okay. 
 
The crisis at the end always comes in an environment of rising interest rates, and the stock market is first to trough because of its far greater liquidity. Investors, speculators, and homeowners with little equity at the end of a cycle will always be wiped out. Always. Recovery takes years, not months. Historically, prices have dropped 20-30% from previous peaks. In the US the 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle is expected to peak and crash again around 2025 - 2026.
 
 
See also:

Thursday, November 22, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle | Nov 27 (Tue) Low

This 2000-2018 Analog projects some sort of a low on Nov 27 (Tue),
some sort of a rally into Dec 09 (Sun), another decline into
Dec 22 (Sat), a high on Dec 28 (Fri), and a low on Jan 05 (Sat).

Monday, August 27, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Nodal Cycle | Aug 27, 2018 = Jan 14, 2000

Jan 14, 2000 (Fri = Major High in DJIA) + 6,800 CD = Aug 27, 2018 (Mon)

A high should print around Aug 30 (Thu) ± 1 CD.
Aug 30 will be also
195 Solar Degrees of geocentric longitude from the Major Low on Feb 09 (Fri)
and 1,440 Lunar Degrees from the Low on May 03 (Thu).

Saturday, June 16, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Nodal Cycle

The Nutation Cycle is caused by a very slight elliptical nodding of the Earth's axis, which is super-
imposed on the precessional motion due to the pull of the Moon on the Earth. This shows up as the north
node’s retrograde (clockwise) movement around the ecliptic circle, taking 18.6133 tropical years to
complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox.

Monday, January 9, 2017

SPX vs 4.5 Degree Steps of Lunar Node to Lunar Apogee | 80th Harmonic

Upcoming aspects in this 18 Year Cycle:
Feb 04 (Sat) = 85.5 degrees, Mar 14 (Tue) =  90 degrees, Apr 13 (Thu), May 07 (Sun), May 26 (Fri),
Jun 19 (Mon), Jul 16 (Sun), Aug 22 (Tue), Sep 25 (Mon), Oct 21 (Sat), Nov 12 (Sun), Dec 02 (Sat),
Dec 26 (Tue), 2018 Jan 29 (Mon) = 144 degrees. See also HERE

Sunday, January 8, 2017

SPX vs 15 Degree Steps of Lunar Node to Lunar Apogee | 24th Harmonic

Upcoming aspects in this 18 Year Cycle:
Jan 12 (Thu) = 165 degrees, Mar 14 (Tue) = 180 degrees, Apr 28 (Fri), Jun 04 (Sun), Jul 16 (Sun),
Sep 17 (Sun), Oct 28 (Sat), Dec 02 (Sat), Jan 15, 2018 (Mon).
David McMinn (2016): 9/56 Year Cycle: Lunar North Node - Apogee Angles [5 p.]

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Martin Armstrong on the DJIA

Saturday, August 1, 2015

DJIA vs Lunar North Node in Zodiac Signs | Louise McWhirter

The mathematically calculated Lunar Nodes are sensitive points in space where the Moon’s orbit around the Earth
intersects the ecliptic - the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The Ascending Node is where the Moon crosses from
south of the ecliptic to north of the ecliptic. The Descending Node is where it crosses from north of the ecliptic
to south of the ecliptic. In Western astrology the Ascending and Descending Nodes are known as the "North Node"
and the "South Node". Only the North Node is usually marked in horoscopes, as the South Node is by definition at
the opposite point in the chart. In Vedic astrology, the North and South Nodes are called Rahu and Ketu respectively,
and both are marked in the chart. Nodes always move retrograde and are considered natural malefics. Astrologically
the Nodes are thought to powerfully influencing both the affairs of nations and of people. Eclipses occur only near
the Lunar Nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a Node coincides with the New Moon.
Lunar Eclipses occur when passage coincides with the Full Moon. The plane of the lunar orbit precesses in space
and hence the Lunar Nodes precess around the ecliptic, completing a revolution (called a Draconic or Nodal Period,
the period of nutation) in 6798.383 days or 18.612 years. The Nodes need 1.55 years to pass through one zodiac sign.

In her book 'Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting' published almost 80 years ago, financial astrologer Louise McWhirter described a theory of the business cycle. She claimed the low point of the depression was reached in summer of 1933 (Lunar North Node in Aquarius) and predicted the next peak in economic activity would occur in November 1942 (NN in Leo). Her prediction for recovery in 1942 coincided with the massive economic stimulus spending set in motion by the build-up for World War II. Looking at 100 years of stock market prices she consistently found the North Node in the sign of Aquarius during periods of low economic activity. At the halfway point in the 18.6-year cycle, the North Node is moving into the sign of Leo, where economic high points have historically been recorded. After this, the long-term trend moves lower as the North Node slowly and systematically makes its way back to the sign of Aquarius, where the cycle begins anew (see also HERE). 

Enlarge
Using McWhirter’s method, one would have expected the lowest economic period between January 2008 and August 2009 (NN in Aquarius), and then gradually improving from below normal levels to normal levels between August 2009 and August 2012 (NN in Capricorn, Sagittarius and Scorpio). The period between September 2012 and February 2014 was projected to be an above normal period for economic performance (unfortunately the red line of the averaged composite in the above chart doesn't clearly reflect this pattern). 

Though a considerable market correction between now and Q1 2016 is likely (HERE & HERE), a larger ensuing double-dip recession wouldn’t fit into the McWhirter-pattern (HERE). Instead the general upward trend should continue into the major peak-out between May 2017 and November 2018 (NN in Leo - HERE), followed by collapsing and declining markets into the 2020s (HERE).

Thursday, March 15, 2012

W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table 1784 - 2121 | Extended and Adjusted

 
Reportedly W.D. Gann constructed his legendary Financial Time Table on August 8th, 1908, without an ephemeris. Gann himself has been quoted as saying that this was his greatest market discovery. It is entirely based on the moon’s north node, which completes a full cycle every 18.6-years. This is the same cycle that Louise McWhirter used to predict the stock market as well. To mimic the Lunar Declination Cycle Gann simply alternated a sequence of +19, +18, +19, +18 etc.-years across the top to get an average length of 18.6-years. However, he finally noted that an adjustment would finally be due for Dec 25th, 1989. The above table adjusted the pattern to the ephemeris. 
 
The Financial Time Table predicts years of recessions, depressions, high stock prices, panics, low stock prices, speculative times, stock market crashes, labor strikes and so on. The legend at the right of the table reads as follows:
A - Extreme low stock prices, strikes, repression, despair, and beginning of new business generation for 18-3/5 years. 4 years of rising stock prices and improving business, markets bare of goods. Young men becoming prominent.
B - High stock prices.
C - Panic
D - Low stock prices.
E - High stock prices.
F - Panic
G - Low stock prices.
H - Very high stock prices most prosperous year, waste over extravagance, most money in circulation, much speculation.
J - Major Panic-CRASH! 4-years of falling prices, business stagnated, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment.
K - Same as A plus strikes, unemployment, many prominent deaths. 
W.D. Gann also observed what he came to call the decade cycle”. In his many commodity and stock market courses, he described the decade cycle this way: By studying the yearly high and low chart and going back over a long period of time, you will see the years in which bull markets culminate and the years in which bear markets begin and end.  Each decade, or 10-year cycle, which is one-tenth of 100 years, marks an important campaign… In referring to these numbers and these years, we mean the calendar years.  
 
To understand this, study 1891 to 1900, 1901 to 1910, 1911 to 1920, 1921 to 1930 and 1931 to 1939.  The ten year cycle continues to repeat over and over, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others.
Year
1. A year in which a bear market ends and a bull market begins. 1901, 1911, 1921.
2. The second year is a year of a minor bull market, or a rally in a bear market will start at some time.  1902, 1912, 1922, 1932.
3. Starts a bear year, but the rally from the second year may run to March or April before culmination, or a decline from the 2nd year may run down and make bottom in February or March, like 1933.  1903, 1913, 1923.
4. The fourth year is a bear year, but ends the bear cycle and lays the foundation for a bull market.  Compare 1904, 1914.
5. The fifth year is the year of Ascension, and a very strong year for a bull market.  See 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935.
6. The sixth year is a bull year, in which a bull campaign which started in the fourth year ends in the Fall of the year and a fast decline starts.  See 1896, 1906, 1916, 1926.
7. Seven is a bear number and the seventh year is a bear year because 84 months or 840 degrees is 7/8ths of 90.  See 1897, 1907, 1917, but note 1927 was the end of a 60 year cycle, so not much of a decline.
8. The eighth year is a bull year.  Prices start advancing in the 7th year and reach the 90th month in the 8th year.  This is very strong and a big advance usually takes place.  Review 1898, 1908, 1918, 1928.  (2008 did not follow this pattern, which is where a little real estate cycle knowledge was helpful in this instance.)
9. Nine is the highest digit and the ninth year is the strongest of all for the bull markets.  Final bull campaigns culminate in this year after extreme advances and prices start to decline.  Bear markets usually start in September to November at the end of the 9th year and a sharp decline takes place.  See 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919 and 1929, the year of the greatest advances, culminating in the fall of that year, followed by a sharp decline.
10. Ten is a bear year.  A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts.  See 1910, 1920, 1930.